Political Diary

New Delhi, 1 May 2010

Opposition Cut Motion

UPA TRIUMPS, BUT WAR CONTINUES

By Poonam I Kaushish

Billed as the political IPL’s battle of nerves, it ended with three ‘magical’ alphabets becoming the game changer: CBI. Call it the Central Bureau of Investigation or by its present-day nickname, Congress Bureau of convenience, connivance and corruption it matters little. Clearly, the ‘kanooni nautanki’ exposed once again that political maya can be traded for legal nirvana with the devil taking the hindmost! Dividing the Opposition by hook and by CBI crook.

All over a silly do-or-die-but-doomed Opposition sponsored cut motion in the Lok Sabha against the Government's decision to hike the prices of urea and petrol. Thanks to the killer instincts of seasoned Congress managers, CBI ‘agreeing’ to play footsie with  BSP’s Mayawati leading to her ‘I love Congress’ googly, BJP Jharkhand ally JMM’s Shibu Soren’s sudden ‘Alziemher’cross-voting, Mulayam-Lalu duo’s `socialist betrayal’ of the comrades, the Right and Left ended up inflicting a comical self-goal.

 Adding insult to injury, post the ‘floor collapse’ the Opposition advertised that it cannot come together even on neutral issues like price rise. Worse, the BJP and Left find itself in a piquant predicament: They don’t know who are with them and who are not. Mulayam-Lalu inflicted the unkindest cut; participating in the 13-Party Left sponsored Bharat Bandh only to dump it hours later for the comrades `joint-venture’ with ‘communal’ BJP.  Even the 3MPs-strong JD (S) Deve Gowda, Chandrashekhara Rao’s two-member TRS and ‘Congress rebel’ Bhajan Lal all failed to turn up for voting .

At the same time it was a wake-up call to the Congress as its credibility plank had taken a severe hit. True, thanks to CBI crook it had enticed Maya and Soren, got Mulayam-Lalu to stage a walk-out and exploded the myth of Opposition unity with 289 MPs voting for the UPA. But it no longer could be sanguine about its allies support. Take away the BSP’s 21 MPs and JMM chief Shibu Soren’s vote and the UPA tally is 267, seven below the half-way mark, UPA II is not close to being formidable. Their support comes with a heavy price tag:  a case by case basis rather than agreement on policy. The fate of the Women’s Reservations Bill a case in point.  

There is a growing disquiet sense among some of its allies whose support is critical, that the Congress is moving away from a coalition dharma towards a single-Party rule mindset. NCP’s Pawar seems to think that the IPL ‘leaks’ are the handiwork of the Government to embarrass him.  Trinamool’s Mamata is worried about the forthcoming W Bengal Assembly polls, DMK is undergoing family upheaval and a defeat in next year’s State polls could lead to another political realignment. Last but not least staunch ally Lalu who resents being sidelined and kept out of the Cabinet.

The Congress’ doing business with arch rival BSP once again highlights the use and misuse of the CBI for political ends. Getting the investigative agency to consider Mayawati's plea for closing a disproportionate assets case against her and ‘go-slow’ on similar cases against Mulayam, Lalu and  Soren. On the facetious familiar “secular logic” against “communal forces.”

However, the Congress will have to walk a tightrope during its on-going UP yatra to expose the corruption under the BSP regime. Given that it is attempting to emerge as the main Opposition party in the run-up to the 2012 UP polls. In keeping with this gameplan, the Congress has mounted a strong campaign against Mayawati and christened her daulat ki beti and moortidevi after the innumerable statues built by her. Ironically, despite such strong criticism it is now forced to treat Mayawati as an ally and is at a loss to explain the Congress’ strategy in UP in the coming days.

For the main Opposition Party BJP, the going couldn’t get any worse. Not only was its motion defeated but it inflicted a collateral damage on the Party when it Jharkhand ally Chief Minister Soren ditched it in the Lok Sabha. Not only did it demonstrate how clueless the BJP’s floor-managers were but also how coolly Soren dined with BJP President Gadkari’s after casting his vote, with the latter having no inkling that the JMM Chief had bolted from its stable.

The Party retaliated swiftly by withdrawing support to Soren’s Government, but by then, enough damage had been done to the BJP’s credibility and standing in a State which was until a few years ago it considered its stronghold. Party leaders admit that the decision to embrace Soren three months ago to form the Government was rank opportunism but are all said to do it again.

The Left must be equally embarrassed, as it had bought Mulayam’s sound byte of a larger non-UPA “secular” alliance taking shape at the Centre. It was hoping that the coming together of “secular” parties in Parliament would be the first step towards a realignment of forces. But the Yadav duos’ walkout from the Lok Sabha, showed that the Third Front is an idea whose time might never come. The second time in less than two years that the SP Chief has ditched the Left for the Congress. First over the Indo-US nuclear deal in July 2008. It remains to be seen if the Left has learnt its lesson yet.

As for Mulayam and Lalu both have exposed their inherent inability to take on Congress. Given that it would be imprudent for the m to antagonise the ruling Party.  Both need the Centre’s ‘help’ to get out of various cases against them and family members. The good news for Mulayam is that his arch UP rival too, has come to Congress’ aid. But the tacit backing for the UPA would make it difficult for the SP to claim that it has the wherewithal to take on Congress.

For Lalu, with Bihar poll bound the implications are more serious. Given that JD(U) and NDA doesn’t tire of dubbing the RJD as a Congress B-team. But the Grand Dame is clear: support for the Centre in the hour of crisis will not change its’ attitude towards the RJD and will go it alone in the coming polls in Bihar.

As for BSP’s Mayawati none knows her next move. Congressmen read her newfound bonhomie, as her way of blurring the partisan faultlines when Congress is seeking to cast itself, as her principal opposition. Even as she underlined her support to the UPA she repeatedly asserted that protest against the Centre on discrimination towards UP would continue. This dictomy is reflective of Mayawatis’ dilemma as she is conscious of the fact that siding with the Opposition against the UPA does not gain her anything. On the contrary, bailing the Government out has helped her legally. By refusing to play second fiddle to the Left Opposition grouping Mayawati made plain she was not billing to subsume her identify to the Left or BJP.  As she sees the BSP as the ‘’third national party’ after the Congress and BJP and has never hidden her prime ministerial ambition.

“By supporting the UPA, we cannot take a strong stand in Parliament against the government on many issues and become bound to support its policies,” an MP said. “We must spell out clearly what exactly we mean by outside support. How can we support the Congress here, whom we are so critical of back home?” said another MP.

Sadly, a more serious political fallout was the brazen wrecking of CBI’s image as a “professional investigative agency.” In fact, like successive Governments prior to it, UPA I and II have successfully undermined its autonomy and independence. Be it Bofors scandal in 1990s or Lalu, Mulayam and Mayawati in 2010, all have used an abused the CBI to further their political interests.

The tragedy of it all, in an era where political image has come to be branded like detergents, quick-fix solutions are sought for chronic maladies.  Times out of number our netagan are only thinking of themselves, seeking an image rectification instead of dealing with chronic maladies that plague India. Time for our powers-that-be to desist from playing further havoc. CBI or no CBI, at the end of the day, are we going to mortgage our conscience to corrupt and tainted leaders.  INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Sunday Reading

New Delhi, 27 April 2010 

Just 1411 Tigers

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

By Syed Ali Mujtaba

The advertisement campaign that there are only 1411 tigers left in India has attracted wide attention. It has also moved a large number of hearts. People from Kashmir to Kanyakumari and from Gujarat to Arunachal Pradesh want to know the root of the problem. They are perplexed how such a catastrophe is taking place right under the Government’s nose and no solution has been found to stem the decline of the tigers’ population.   

One of the reasons for this decline is obviously poaching, which is done because there is a huge demand for tiger body parts and its skins. The body parts are used in a wide variety of traditional medicine and black magicians use its skin as a seat. In order to meet these demands there are criminal gangs that fund the poaching operations in India. It’s an organized crime conducted in collusion with local people, forest communities and the wild life protection officials.

Poor infrastructure is another reason for the decline of the tiger population. The under-equipped forest guards find it difficult to protect the tiger reserves. Most of these have very limited frontline staff and each would have to cover an area of 65-70 sq km. This is ridiculous task and sometimes forest officials would inflate the figures of the tigers to save their jobs. The tiger reserves also exist in an environment where thousands of indigenous communities live side by side. The relationship with the local communities and the forest is the "weak link” in the conservation effort of the tigers.

Of late tiger conservationists want the local communities out of the reserve as it felt that they are a hindrance in protecting the animals. However, the local communities are shifted from the core areas of the reserves without being given any alternative access for grazing or fuel collection. They have no other option but to turn to the reserves for their survival and poach tigers for their livelihood.

Additionally, the developmental priorities of the government are causing an irreversible ecological transition in the tiger reserves resulting in the decline of their population. Extractive industries like mining and manufacturing and power plants are found in the reserves. Thus the insidious encroachment of the development projects is coming in the way of saving the tigers. 

Clearly the fate of the tigers is entwined with the area of forest reserves. The depleting forest area poses a challenge to the conservation plan and it is estimated that 726 sq km of forest area has decreased in the past one decade.

Indeed, tigers are territorial animal. They literally need land to roam freely. With the birth of a male tiger, this search starts. Either the old tiger gives way or the male has to look beyond the protected areas of the forest and move into the guarded area of the forest. The tiger could expand its space when the outside world was forested, but now when the forests are degraded, they have no where to go except outside the reserve zone.

The total core area of a national park is about 17,000 sq km. A tiger needs a minimum 10 sq km territory to roam, mate and live. If we compare this with the dwindling forest space, then we can rationalize why we have so few tigers left.

The census has revealed that many more tigers lived outside reserves than those inside. The 2001 census put the number at about 1,500 tigers inside and as many as 2,000 outside. The 2005 census found the number of tigers in the reserves between 1,165 and 1,657 but did not account those living outside. What happened to them? Where did they disappear? Were they all killed by those who live outside the reserves?

This could be true because the people who live outside the reserve are poor and resent these animals. The tigers kill their cattle, the herbivores and wild boars in the reserve eat their growing crop. Thus those living around tiger land are at the receiving end and therefore it would be in their best interest to kill the big cats and its preys.

So where do we go from here? How do we save the tiger? Do we plan to expand and increase the forest area or save those people who live outside the reserves or save the tigers? The best way would be a combination of all three. We have to protect the forests from depleting. The conservation of the tigers should not be at the expense of the indigenous people who live outside the reserve. The best way could be a co-existence formula between the forest, the tigers and the indigenous people. 

Unless we re-imagine the conservation efforts differently there is little hope to expect anything from the ad campaigns. The hard fact is that more forest land is needed to safeguard the tigers and for this systematic planning must be done. The tract of land outside the reserves has to be to be planted with trees that will help survive the cattle and the goats. In addition, we have to look after the people who live outside the reserves. They should be generously compensated for the crops destroyed or their cattle killed and provided with alternative access to grazing and fuel collection.

Moreover, substantial and disproportionate development investment in the areas adjoining a tiger reserve must be ensured. This would benefit the people around the reserves and they must be made partners, owners and earners from the tiger conservation plan.

All this, however, does not mean that we should not improve the infrastructure and manpower to watch and ward the forest. This is equally essential to stop poaching. Efforts should also be made to improve the prey population so that tigers can feed upon them easily. More camera traps should be set up to monitor the tigers and their prey. These could be also used for surveillance against the poachers and the timber cutters, who are depleting the forest with impunity.

Indeed, the entire apparatus for the conservation of the tigers from bottom up should be streamlined. The head in-charge of the tiger reserve should be made accountable and their work should be periodically monitored. Anyone found neglecting his/her duty should be taken to task.

Unfortunately, the tiger conservation plan is infested by lobby and pressure groups that call the shots. They are the ones who block the positive move to conserve the tigers. It’s thus imperative that the wings of such groups should be clipped.

The media campaign should move from making noises that there only 1411 tigers left. Instead, it is its duty to drum up a new agenda for the conservation of the tigers. The focus should shift to reclaim the forest land and how to add on it. It should also address the issues confronting the indigenous communities.

Finally, the countrymen must wakeup to the reality and identify the solutions and volunteer to monitor the changes taking place on the ground. Unless something drastically is done to change the discourse of tiger conservation, nothing concrete is going to come out from making sheer noises that there are only 1411 tigers left. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 28 April 2010

Delhi Stopover

KARZAI INDIA’S BEST BET

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

It would be stating the obvious to say that Afghanistan is vital for the stability and security of South Asia. If Afghanistan fails, the region fails. The course of events has not been encouraging there with the Taliban confident of driving the NATO forces to war fatigue. Besides, plans being hatched among international players to collude with the so called “Good Taliban” do not sound very promising either. 

This is a crucial juncture in Afghanistan’s search for stability and security and an important test for India’s regional diplomacy. New Delhi should deploy its entire diplomatic might to raise its influence in the proceedings in Afghanistan for India’s own interests and for the betterment of the Afghan people. At present, India’s soft power is evident in the volume of assistance given towards the reconstruction of the war-torn country, resulting in India having to suffer some serious casualties in recent times.

India’s activities in Afghanistan have been a constant source of irritation for the Pakistani establishment, insecure and suspicious that increasing Indian influence might be inimical to its own influence in the region. The nightmarish rise of the Taliban yet again as a viable political force in the future of Afghanistan should not be good news for India, or for that matter any other country in the region.

But, Pakistan as evident from history has other plans. The Pakistani military and intelligence having been actively involved in the creation of the Taliban at the first instance see this ultra-conservative Islamist group as a favourable force to Pakistan’s interests. It is apparent that the Pakistani establishment wants to install in Kabul a power structure cooperative of its game plan, which will in turn spawn other anti-India activities in the region.

President Hamid Karzai’s short stopover in New Delhi en-route to the SAARC summit in Thimpu, Bhutan is a significant gesture that should further the camaraderie that the New Delhi  shares with his establishment. It should serve as a further vindication of India’s soft power influence and encourage New Delhi to continue and accelerate its humanitarian activities in Afghanistan, keeping in mind the safety and security of Indian lives.

The Karzai visit served as a platform for both the countries to assess the present conditions and realities of the reconstruction and the fight against terror in Afghanistan. India’s unwavering commitment towards civilian assistance to Afghanistan was reiterated and in turn, the Afghan President reassured his resolve to provide full security to the Indians working in Afghanistan.

Quite rightly, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh categorically stated that heinous attacks against Indians would not thwart India’s pledge to extend all possible help to see a democratic, pluralistic and independent Afghanistan. India has pledged $1.3 billion for a slew of reconstruction and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.

India’s civilian activities in Afghanistan focuses on infrastructure development, human resource development, capacity building, food assistance and other small development projects aiming at immediate benefits to people at the grassroots level. During President Karzai’s talks with PM Singh, a special note was made of the Zaranj-Delaram road project, the Pul-e—Kumri to Kabul transmission line project and scholarships programmes bringing direct benefit to the Afghan people. Satisfactory attention was given to the progress being made in the construction of the building of the Afghan parliament.

A common struggle against extremism and terrorism was advocated, and India wholly supported a reconstruction process led by the Afghans and dictated by the interests of the people of Afghanistan. "The two leaders reiterated their conviction that the national rebuilding process in Afghanistan should be led by the people of Afghanistan in keeping with the principles of national sovereignty, independence and non-interference in internal affairs," read a joint statement.  

Accordingly, the Afghan President briefed PM Singh on the peace jirga, an assembly of tribal elders he plans to convene next month and the ongoing efforts to integrate those elements of the Taliban, which have no links with the Al Qaeda or any terrorist network. "We discussed the upcoming Afghanistan Peace Consultations which should comprise the people of Afghanistan, those from all walks of life, to advise on how to move forward for reintegration and reconciliation of those elements of Taliban and others who have accepted the constitution or not part of the Al Qaeda or any terrorist network," Karzai said.

The London Conference held early this year had endorsed the “Good Taliban Vs Bad Taliban” line and largely accepted the centrality of Pakistan in dealing with the Taliban. India’s concerns over unaudited dependence on Pakistan were sidelined. New Delhi has always been wary (with evidential reason) of raising the responsibility of Pakistan in the Afghan conflict.

At least influential sections of the Pakistani establishment have an apparent stake in the rise of Taliban in Kabul. A Taliban takeover will unnecessarily increase India’s strategic vulnerability. In India’s rivalry with neighbouring Pakistan, it really counts to have a neutral Karzai, if not a supportive one. India sees a feasibility problem in the plans to win over the sections of the Taliban, especially when the latter seems be able to strike even the capital city Kabul with impunity.  As such, New Delhi took the opportunity to yet again caution the Afghan leader against any power sharing deal with the Taliban.

But the political landscape in Afghanistan is complex and it will be premature to pass any verdict on the proposed Afghan Peace Consultations as of now. President Karzai is the best alternative present for India and all assistance and support should be extended to his government at the moment. Despite all his flaws and accusations of being corruption-tainted, he is still the most legitimate power-holder in the Afghan scenario with whom some meaningful cooperation and diplomatic channeling can be worked out.

Although he was re-elected in rather controversial rounds of elections, he is still the only available and by any standards a far-better alternative to the gun-flaunting Taliban who have inculcated a habit of routinely defying international law and all semblance of a civilized governance. Given the tense and insecure atmosphere amidst which he tries to maneuver, half-hearted allegiance and measures to discredit him would only embolden the Taliban.

The outcome of the Peace Consultations has to be watched but at the same time India as well the international community need to be prepared for the worst. New Delhi’s caution against power- sharing with the violent and brute Taliban need to be taken into account, and the dependence on Pakistani military and intelligence should be adequately evaluated lest the same mistakes further stuns any prospect for a normal and stable Afghanistan.

The world has already witnessed the implications of a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, and members of the international community particularly India and the US have borne the brunt of suicidal Islamist extremist groups. As such, history should serve as a lesson to help stop the recurrence of at least the preventable causes that would once again dump all well-intentioned measures into the drain. The end result would be an unstable Afghanistan ruled by aggressive fanatics, with an uncertain future on the horizon. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 29 April 2010

Of CBI & Vote Bank

STATES BAIL OUT THE CENTRE

By Insaf

The States have bailed out a beleaguered Centre as never before. Ironically they have enabled New Delhi to secure Parliament’s approval for the Finance Bill, even as their regional leaders cried hoarse against price hike. Four days prior to the crucial cut motion in the Lok Sabha, the opposition satraps threatened to vote out the UPA-II. The dice clearly appeared to be against the Centre. But vote bank politics and CBI cases against BSP supremo Mayawati and others intervened decisively. Hours before the cut motions on Tuesday last, the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister announced her support (21 MPs) to the UPA, saying it was to keep the communal forces out. However, the truth lies elsewhere. Call it coincidence, but the CBI on Friday last told the Supreme Court that it would consider Mayawati’s plea for closure of a disproportionate assets case against her. 

Likewise, Samajwadi Party chief, Mulayam Singh Yadav too decided to go along with the Congress rather than the Left parties as he eyed his party’s position in Uttar Pradesh. He had burnt his fingers in the Lok Sabha poll by aligning with BJP’s erstwhile Kalyan Singh and did not want to be seen siding with the BJP on the cut motion. The Muslim vote in the Hindi heartland is obviously a crucial factor. The Bihar Assembly elections later this year are Lalu Prasad Yadav’s concern. By getting his four RJD MPs to abstain he seems to be keen to work out some sort of electoral arrangement with the Congress. Moreover, the three leaders are looking for a further quid pro quo. The Congress will need keep in mind their strong opposition to the Women’s Reservation Bill and put it in cold storage. At the end, while the Left parties could only say “it is unfortunate”, the big question is will the Centre eventually oblige its adversaries?

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Uncertainty In Jharkhand

Meanwhile, in all this high drama, developments in Jharkhand have come under the spotlight. The State Chief Minister and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) chief Shibu Soren sprang a shocking surprise. In the chair for four months with the support of the BJP, Soren voted for the UPA; he is technically still a Lok Sabha member! An incensed BJP immediately considered withdrawing support, but put its date with the Governor on hold, following Soren’s apology and undertaking that JMM was with the NDA. It is also considering Soren’s latest offer. On Thursday last, the JMM chief offered to step down as CM and support a saffron nominee. He, however, sought that his son, Hemant be made the Deputy CM. The BJP is now not only weighing Soren’s sincerity but the options of who could don the CM’s post –former CM Arjun Munda, or Deputy CM Raghuvar Das or former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha. At its end the Congress “waits and watches”, the developments. Sadly, political uncertainty dodges Jharkhand yet again.

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W Bengal’s Salwa Judam

CPM-ruled West Bengal seems to have its own prescription of tackling the Maoists problem, now that the country is awash with varied solutions. It has the communist version of the salwa judam “people’s resistance” groups in about 15 villages. Apparently, over the past year-and-a-half heavily armed CPM “fighters” have been living in nearly a dozen camps in Bankura, one of the three Maoists-infested districts, other than Purulia and West Midnapore. So far about “60 Maoists” have been killed, claim the police. Each of these camps, which have the backing of local MPs and MLAs, have been set up at strategic locations, and house a 100-odd such men. The private militia admits the Government is “encouraging the villagers” to carry out carry out a night vigil to stop the Maoists from entering their villages. Will the state-sponsored movement yield results? Remember the salwa judam miserably failed in nearby Chhattisgarh. 

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Reprieve For Amarinder

Dame luck has smiled on Capt. Amarinder Singh as it has on a few former chief ministers across the country. He is back in the reckoning in Punjab politics. On Monday last, the Supreme Court, gave a hard knock to the Akali Dal-BJP government by declaring the former CM’s expulsion by the State Assembly in September 2008 as “constitutionally invalid and undemocratic.” The Assembly had revoked Amarinder’s membership for his involvement in a 32.1 acre land scam. The five-member bench ruled that it is “improper for Parliament or Assembly to expel a member for breach of privilege citing acts of corruption or misconduct allegedly committed as part of executive functions.” The only exceptional cases where acts which occur outside the House could affect the integrity of legislative functions could be when “legislators accept bribes in lieu of asking questions or for voting” in the House, the court elaborated. Ideally, it suggested the Government should have filed a criminal complaint against Amarinder. The judgement has thus not only helped the Congress leader regains his MLA status but he could stake claim for the leadership of the Punjab PCC before the High Command.

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AGP-BJP Alliance off?

The BJP has received a rude shock in Assam. Its coalition partner, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has decided to call of its alliance with the saffron party. A decision to this affect was taken by the AGP’s steering committee on Sunday last. As a next step, it has been sent to the general house of the party for ratification. The trouble between the coalition partners started a while ago with a growing discontent among party workers that the BJP had benefitted the most from the tie-up in the recent Lok Sabha polls. Of the 14 seats, while the BJP’s tally went up from two to four, the AGP could win just one against the two it had held earlier. This apart, it was agreed that while the saffron party would be the dominant party in General elections, the AGP would lead the alliance in the 2011 Assembly polls. However, the new BJP President Gadkari has ruffled feathers at a recent press conference. He said the party was able to go it alone in the Assembly polls, making AGP leaders quip of how ignorant he was about Assam and the AGP. Will the BJP be able to mend bridges? 

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Rajasthan Hit By IPL

The IPL controversy has triggered ripples in Rajasthan too. On Thursday last, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot accused former BJP Chief Minister Vasundhra Raje of allowing former IPL commissioner Lalit Modi to act as “an extra-constitutional power” during her regime. Modi, he charged used to pressurise officers for favours and "bureaucrats went to his hotel room carrying files for clearance but Raje who was aware of all these happenings never cared to stop him." Additionally, he said the law department was examining the purchase of two heritage buildings, belonging to the government by Modi at Amber on the outskirts of Jaipur. Raje has hit back saying the CM was diverting attention from crucial issues, such as water, power and unemployment, facing the State. Dismissing his charges, Raje said in the past 17 months in power, Gehlot has made various allegations but failed to proved none. This slanging match looks will carry on. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)